Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 0.849047 0.993396 1.154678 1.348235 1.574265 1.829943 2.141245
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.654499 0.856316 1.107860 1.444479 1.883474 2.437102 3.189403
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.533799 0.756405 1.056375 1.490279 2.102587 2.937136 4.163767
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.443643 0.670707 0.996677 1.498943 2.254591 3.351498 5.069905
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.373238 0.596657 0.935369 1.486490 2.362697 3.705607 5.928360
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.320620 0.538730 0.885886 1.478911 2.469383 4.062856 6.833192
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.283130 0.497854 0.855128 1.493139 2.607751 4.482032 7.890024
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.241393 0.442680 0.791621 1.440866 2.623264 4.694528 8.620246
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.229739 0.438206 0.813735 1.539829 2.914668 5.417011 10.347657
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.200002 0.395872 0.761686 1.495063 2.935519 5.653475 11.208556
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.173976 0.356660 0.709730 1.442275 2.931972 5.840525 11.995120
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.152911 0.324140 0.666048 1.399029 2.939816 6.047691 12.845372
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.140697 0.308515 0.654859 1.422350 3.090670 6.568504 14.434545
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.136515 0.309439 0.678047 1.521812 3.417167 7.497897 17.035647
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.128196 0.299996 0.677770 1.569931 3.638304 8.231931 19.313028
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.117786 0.284225 0.661324 1.579050 3.772369 8.791198 21.271886
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.107063 0.266097 0.636940 1.565930 3.852111 9.236050 23.022626
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.097900 0.250385 0.616008 1.557946 3.942645 9.717197 24.929620
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.091071 0.239478 0.605079 1.572935 4.091611 10.357716 27.326229
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.081167 0.219266 0.568526 1.517866 4.055255 10.535775 28.560840
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.080265 0.222611 0.591958 1.622122 4.448293 11.853665 32.996399
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.072269 0.205627 0.560380 1.574962 4.429870 12.099192 34.559010
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.064769 0.188946 0.527402 1.519351 4.380502 12.255659 35.897380